Alberta will see a 13 per cent increase in MLS housing sales in 2012, bucking a national downward trend and far outpacing B.C., which will see housing sales fall 10.7 per cent compared to a year earlier, according to the latest forecast from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA.)
Nationally, housing sales are projected to drop 0.5 per cent this year, compared to 2011, to 456,300 units.
For 2013, CREA expects national housing sales to decline a further 2 per cent. "This is a slightly lower level of activity than previously forecast, reflecting the ongoing impact of new mortgage rules into next year," CREA states. The new rules shortened amortization periods to 25 years, from 30, and tightened qualifications for secondary homes and home equity lines of credit. CREA is also forecasting that mortgage interest rates will begin increasing from the current near-historic lows in late 2013.
"Annual sales in 2012 reflect a stronger profile prior to recent mortgage rule changes followed by weaker activity following their implementation," said Gregory Klump, CREA's chief economist. "By contrast, forecast sales in 2013 reflect an improvement from levels this summer in the immediate wake of mortgage rule changes. Even so, sales in most provinces next year are expected to remain down from levels posted prior to the most recent changes to mortgage regulations."
The national average home price is forecast to edge up marginally to $365,100 in 2013, with British Columbia, Ontario, and New Brunswick registering small price declines and modest average price gains in line with or below inflation in other provinces, CREA says.
