Western Canadian farmers are sitting on a bumper crop, according to a leading grain analyst.
“If we have a nice harvest period, we have the potential for having a close-to-record crop on the Prairies this year,” said MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett.
That observation is based on a recently completed 3,500-kilometre crop tour of the three Prairie provinces.
His trip missed some key areas such as northwestern Alberta’s Peace district, but it covered most of the main grain growing regions of Western Canada.
The cereal crops looked particularly stunning.
“Both spring wheat and durum are a lot better than they were last year, especially durum,” Burnett said during an interview at the Ag in Motion farm show held last week near Langham.
Durum yields are estimated to reach 44 bushels per acre, an 18 bu. improvement over last year.
Using Statistics Canada’s June acreage estimate and average abandonment would result in a crop of 7.4 million tonnes.
“That’s a big recovery in the durum crop,” he said.
It would be the second largest in the past 10 years, ranking behind the 2016 crop.
Spring wheat yields are pegged at 57 bu. per acre, which would be 10 bu. higher than last year and a new record for Western Canada.
Spring wheat production is forecast at 27.8 million tonnes, a 3.4 million tonne improvement over last year.
“The biggest surprise to me in spring wheat was the lack of disease in the crops,” he said.
“With all this wet weather, I thought we’d see a lot more leaf diseases.”
Most of the fields he walked were “very, very clean.”
Burnett isn’t the only analyst forecasting a bumper crop.
Stephen Nicholson, global sector strategist of grains and oilseeds with Rabobank, recently toured the Prairie grain growing region with a contingent of Australian farmers.
“There’s unbelievable looking crops,” he said.
He spoke to several Canadian producers during the journey.
“They’re all saying, ‘this looks like one of the best crops we’ve ever produced,’ ” said Nicholson.
Growers are thinking it will rival, if not exceed, the big crop of 2022.
Breen Neeser, general manager of Canada for Farmers Business Network (FBN), agrees that crops are in good shape halfway through the growing season.
FBN is forecasting a one to two percent increase in yields over last year in Alberta and four to seven percent in the rest of the Prairie region.
“That means all the work and all the money (growers) spent putting the crop in the ground was well worth it,” he said.
Input costs are at the low point of the five-year cycle, crop prices are still historically high and yields are up.
“That’s a recipe for a good year,” he said.
Farmers could be in for some of the best financial returns in years.
Breen said wheat seems to be the standout crop this year.
“I’m no expert, but as you drive by, the density on some of the wheat fields is obviously very (good),” he said.
However, he is concerned about the recent run of hot weather and the forecast for more of the same.
“We’re in that period where it’s either going to stay great or it could start to trend off a little bit,” said Breen.
Burnett agrees that the heat forecast for the second half of July is worrisome, especially for south-central Saskatchewan, where there is not much remaining soil moisture.
This year’s canola crop is a tale of two planting dates. The early-seeded stuff looks fantastic. It is just coming off bloom in the south and in full bloom in the central and northern Prairies.
Late-seeded canola in wetter areas is poorly established and is struggling with the excess moisture.
He is forecasting an average canola yield of 42 bu. per acre, about five bu. better than last year.
Using 21.9 million acres and average abandonment, Burnett is forecasting a crop of 20.6 million tonnes, a 2.3 million tonne improvement over last year.
Barley yields are forecast at 74 bu. per acre, up 12.6 bu. from last year. Production is estimated at 8.1 million tonnes.
Burnett did not have yield estimates for pulses, but lentils are looking fabulous, and he saw a lot of nice looking pea crops.
“Generally speaking, the pulses look very, very good,” he said.
He did not see much disease, but farmers were actively spraying their pulse crops.
The bottom line is that there is a bumper crop on the way barring any big catastrophic weather event.
“This has been an excellent growing season this year, especially given how dry it was and how concerned we were about drought,” he said.
