A pull-back in condo sales is a short-term issue for Vancouver’s under-supplied residential market, according to Grosvenor Canada Ltd., which broke ground last month on a massive new project in Burnaby’s Brentwood neighbourhood.
The first phase of Brentwood Block, opposite Shape Properties’ Amazing Brentwood, will eventually have 3,500 homes as well as a community centre and 200,000 square feet of commercial space. Site prep began last month, with a block party marking the kick-off set for June 14.
“Our ability to move forward is based upon a number of things,” says Marc Josephson, senior vice-president of development at Grosvenor, calling out the sales launch last fall prior to the economic uncertainties that kicked in this spring as a key factor.
“We started sales on the condominium component last fall, moved forward confidently then, and had a lot of success,” he said.
Grosvenor sold 100 homes in 30 days, and sales have continued into this year, resulting in deals for a third of the 452 condo units in the initial phase. This allowed construction to start, with the project’s long timeline to completion giving plenty of room for market conditions to improve and all units to sell.
“It’s important to distinguish between pre-sales and construction. Starting pre-sales right now is a difficult proposition; starting construction depends on what you’ve done up to this point,” he said. “We’re on pace for another slow year of sales, but there’s still time for things to improve.”
The project’s first phase will include 1,731 residential units, including 1,279 rental units across two towers.
Besides condo pre-sales, the project’s proforma is supported by government backing of the rental portion (an announcement is forthcoming, Josephson indicated, but could not disclose details) and municipal ownership of a 100,000-square-foot community centre.
The community centre is scheduled to complete in 2029, with the residential component following in 2030.
“Some projects that are only condo, that’s a difficult proposition because they’ll need to sell this year to start this year, which is a difficult thing to do at this point,” Josephson said.
Data from market research firm Zonda Urban notes that just one Burnaby project has commenced sales this year to date, and 22 projects across Metro Vancouver. This compares to a total of nine projects in Burnaby in all of 2024, including Grosvenor’s, and 77 projects across Metro Vancouver.
New project launches are running into elevated levels of standing inventory, with Zonda Urban recently reporting approximately 4,000 completed and unsold condos across Metro Vancouver – the greatest volume in more than a decade, and growing. These are in addition to rising listings in the resale market.
Meanwhile, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. numbers indicate condominium starts across the region totalled 4,200 in the first four months of this year, down a third from 6,031 a year ago.
The numbers don’t include the Brentwood Block, which will be the largest single project in Burnaby, where has recorded just 61 condo starts so far this year.
A unique feature of the project is that vehicle access will be entirely below grade with the intention of creating a pedestrian-exclusive community within the site.
The four-year timeline until buildings complete is a direct result of the significant groundwork needed to lay the foundation for the eventual towers in both phases of the project.
But it’s also consistent with the long-term thinking Grosvenor – which claims a 340-year history of development – brings to the project, explaining the confidence in commencing construction now.
“We have a uniquely long-term perspective, and we look at it with that timescale,” Josephson said.
But immediate market factors are a consideration.
While construction continues on Grosvenor’s 68-unit Whitford townhouse development opposite Van Dusen Gardens (undertaken in partnership with Citimark Group), Josephson wouldn’t indicate a timeline for launching Mayfair West, its project on the site of the former Oakridge Transit Centre on West 41st Avenue in Vancouver.
The first phase of 460 homes was announced in December 2023, part of an ambitious plan to develop more than 1,600 homes across 17 buildings together with retail space and public amenities.
“Commencing sales right now is a difficult proposition,” he said. “There’s a lot of uncertainty right now about being able to launch any project, so we’re continuing to work through all the various factors as to when we’ll be able to launch there.”
When is the big question, not if.
“This region needs housing and will continue to grow,” he said. “With our long-term perspective, we see that improvement. It’s just a matter of when.”
